The race for autonomous ride-hailing services is intensifying, with Tesla taking a significant, if controversial, step forward. While the company's announcement of testing vehicles without any human safety drivers on board has generated excitement among its supporters, a closer look reveals a nascent program facing stiff competition and operational challenges. This article examines the current state of Tesla's robotaxi ambitions, comparing its progress and safety record with the established leader in the field, Waymo.
Tesla Confirms Fully Driverless Testing in Austin
Elon Musk confirmed on December 15, 2025, that Tesla has begun testing its robotaxi vehicles in Austin, Texas, with no occupants inside. This development, sparked by a user-posted video on social media platform X, marks a shift from the company's previous invite-only program which required a safety monitor in the vehicle. Tesla's head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, and the company's official account amplified the announcement, with the latter posting the cryptic message "Slowly, then all at once." This move fulfills a promise Musk made to investors in October, where he stated the company expected to have no safety drivers in large parts of Austin by the end of the year.
Tesla Robotaxi Program (Austin, TX)
- Launch Date: June 2025 (invite-only, with safety drivers)
- Current Test Phase: Driverless testing (no occupants) began December 2025.
- Active Fleet Size: 31 vehicles (per Robotaxi Tracker).
- Safety Record: At least 7 reported crashes since June 2025 launch.
- Competitor (Waymo) Scale: ~2,000 vehicles across multiple cities, providing >450,000 paid rides per week.
A Small Fleet with a Concerning Safety Record
Despite the fanfare, Tesla's operational footprint in Austin remains minimal. According to data from Robotaxi Tracker, Tesla currently has only 31 active robotaxis in the city. This small test fleet has been involved in at least seven reported crashes since its limited launch in June 2025. Details of these incidents are scarce, as Tesla heavily redacts its reports to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), citing confidential business information. Furthermore, multiple videos circulating online appear to show Tesla's autonomous vehicles making serious driving errors, raising questions about the system's current reliability.
Waymo Maintains a Commanding Lead in Scale and Experience
Tesla's progress must be contextualized against its primary competitor, Alphabet-owned Waymo. Waymo operates a fleet of roughly 2,000 robotaxis across several U.S. cities, including Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Atlanta, and notably, Austin itself—the same city as Tesla's test. The company recently reported it provides over 450,000 paid rides per week, nearly double the figure from April 2025. This scale translates into vast amounts of real-world driving data, a critical component for refining autonomous systems. While Waymo is also not immune to accidents, its established, revenue-generating service highlights the gap Tesla must close.
Financial and Market Context for Tesla's Ambitions
Tesla's push into autonomy comes as its core electric vehicle business faces headwinds from increased competition and slowing demand. The company's stock (TSLA), priced at around USD 475 as of mid-December 2025, has risen 18% in the past month, partly on optimism around its AI and robotaxi developments. However, some analysts maintain a pessimistic outlook, pointing to inconsistent revenue growth and high valuation. One analysis sets a target price of USD 330, arguing that the stock's "Very High" valuation makes it unattractive despite moderate operational performance.
Tesla (TSLA) Financial Snapshot (as of December 2025)
- Stock Price: ~USD 475
- Recent Performance: +18% over the past month.
- Market Capitalization: ~USD 1.5 trillion.
- Analyst Target (Trefis): USD 330, citing "Very High" valuation.
- Recent Revenue (Last 12 Months): USD 96 billion (a -1.6% decrease).
The Road Ahead for Autonomous Ride-Hailing
Tesla's driverless testing is a necessary technical milestone, but it represents only the beginning of a long commercialization journey. The company must dramatically scale its fleet, prove its system's safety over millions of miles, and navigate complex regulatory landscapes—all while competing with a well-funded and experienced rival. The coming year will be critical in determining whether Tesla can transition its autonomous technology from controlled testing to a safe, scalable, and profitable commercial service, or if it will remain a distant follower in the robotaxi race.