Apple's long-anticipated entry into the foldable smartphone market is shaping up to be a classic case of high demand meeting constrained supply. According to a prominent industry analyst, the launch of a foldable iPhone, expected in 2026, will likely be followed by a prolonged period of scarcity, potentially stretching into the following year.
Development Timeline Slipping
The journey to a foldable iPhone has hit a significant snag. Renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reports that the device's development is currently lagging approximately nine months behind Apple's original internal schedule. Despite this setback, the company is pushing forward with a target release window in the second half of 2026. However, this delay directly impacts production ramp-up, setting the stage for a supply-constrained launch.
Foldable iPhone Timeline & Outlook:
- Development Status: ~9 months behind original schedule.
- Expected Announcement: Second half of 2026.
- Availability Forecast: Widespread retail availability not expected until 2027.
- Initial Supply: Expected to be severely constrained through end of 2026.
- Analyst Production Estimate (2026): Initial target of 8-10 million units viewed as optimistic; likely to be revised downward.
A Forecast of Persistent Scarcity
The core issue for consumers won't be if Apple releases the phone, but when they can actually purchase one. Kuo's analysis suggests that even after a 2026 debut, widespread availability is unlikely before 2027. He draws a parallel to the launch of the iPhone X, where announcement and mass-market availability were distinctly separate events. With early production yields expected to be low and consumer interest projected to be exceptionally high, the foldable iPhone could remain effectively sold out through the end of 2026.
Market Pressure and Strategic Pivot
Apple's urgency to enter this segment, even with potential supply headaches, is driven by powerful market forces. While the overall smartphone market has contracted, the foldable segment is its brightest spot, boasting consistent double-digit growth. In 2025, the global foldable phone market reached an estimated USD 780 billion, growing at a staggering 45% year-over-year. Currently, Samsung dominates with a 62% share through its Galaxy Z series, followed by Chinese manufacturers like Huawei and Xiaomi. Apple's absence in this lucrative and fast-growing category is a notable gap in its portfolio.
Key Market Data (2025):
- Global Foldable Phone Market Size: USD 780 Billion
- Market Growth Rate: 45% Year-over-Year
- Market Share Leader: Samsung (62% via Galaxy Z series)
- Chinese Manufacturers' Share: Huawei & Xiaomo (Combined ~31%)
- AI-Ready Smartphones: 38% of total shipments support multimodal AI (Source: Counterpoint Research)
The AI Connection
Beyond market share, a key technological trend is influencing Apple's strategy: the rise of on-device, multimodal AI. By 2025, smartphones capable of sophisticated AI interactions are expected to constitute a significant portion of the market. Analysts, including Kuo, believe the expansive screen real estate of a foldable device is ideally suited to serve as a rich canvas for AI assistants, enabling more complex multi-tasking and interactive experiences. This synergy between form factor and functionality is a major reason Apple is prioritizing this product despite the development challenges.
Cautious Production Outlook
Initial optimism about production volumes is being tempered. While earlier supply chain whispers suggested Apple was preparing for an output of 8 to 10 million units in 2026, Kuo indicates this target is likely too ambitious. Conversations within Apple's supply chain reveal that some key manufacturers have more conservative yield estimates. Combined with the complexities of scaling production for a new form factor and components that may not be finalized until late in the development cycle, a downward revision of these shipment forecasts is probable.
The Long Road to Mainstream
For Apple enthusiasts and industry watchers, the message is clear: patience will be required. The foldable iPhone represents a fundamental shift in Apple's smartphone design philosophy, and its path to market is proving complex. The company appears willing to accept a staggered, supply-limited launch to establish a foothold in what it views as the critical evolution of the smartphone before the eventual dawn of AR glasses. For the average consumer, however, it means the wait for a foldable iPhone may extend well beyond its initial announcement, turning its early availability into a premium commodity.