As the AI-driven demand for high-performance memory continues to strain global supply chains, the consumer graphics card market is bracing for a significant shock. New reports suggest that NVIDIA, the dominant player in the GPU space, is preparing to make drastic cuts to the production of its latest GeForce RTX 50 series, potentially making these sought-after components scarce in the coming year.
The Core of the Rumor: A Major Production Reduction
According to unconfirmed reports from supply chain sources, notably on the Chinese Board Channel forums, NVIDIA is planning to significantly reduce the production volume of its RTX 50 series graphics cards. The scale of the cuts is substantial, with figures suggesting a reduction of 30% to 40% in supply moving into the first half of 2026. This decision is reportedly a direct response to a long-term shortage of DRAM, the memory used for both system RAM and the VRAM on graphics cards. While NVIDIA is not expected to raise GPU prices in the immediate term, this production cut is seen as a strategy to manage a constrained supply chain and ensure stability for its partners.
Reported Production Cuts:
- Scale: 30% to 40% reduction in RTX 50 series supply.
- Timeline: Planned for Q1 / first half of 2026.
- Primary Driver: Long-term DRAM memory shortages.
The Driving Force: A Memory "Supercycle" and AI Demand
The root cause of this potential shortage lies in what industry observers are calling a memory "supercycle." Manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix have reportedly allocated the vast majority of their advanced DRAM and NAND flash production to fulfill orders for AI data centers and server infrastructure. This AI boom has created a massive backlog, with shortages projected to last through 2027 or even 2028. The ripple effects are now reaching the consumer market, impacting everything from smartphones and laptops to, critically, graphics cards. NVIDIA's decision to equip the RTX 50 series with cutting-edge GDDR7 memory, while beneficial for performance, has made these GPUs particularly vulnerable to these supply chain pressures.
Context of the Memory Shortage:
- Cause: AI data center demand absorbing the majority of advanced DRAM/NAND production.
- Duration: Shortages projected to last through 2027-2028.
- Broader Impact: Affecting smartphones, laptops, and potentially the pricing of upcoming consoles like the Nintendo Switch 2.
Market Impact: Scarcity and a Shift in Strategy
If these production cuts materialize, the consequences for gamers and PC builders could be severe. The reports indicate that certain RTX 50 models, especially the RTX 5070 Ti and RTX 5060 Ti which feature 16GB of VRAM, could become nearly as difficult to find as they were at launch. This would effectively make upgrading to a next-generation GPU in 2026 "almost impossible" for many, according to one source. Furthermore, the situation may force a strategic shift from NVIDIA. Rumors suggest the company could delay or even cancel the planned RTX 50 SUPER refresh series, which was anticipated to bring models with higher VRAM capacities like 18GB and 24GB to market in 2026.
Potential Impact on Specific Models: Reports suggest the production cuts may disproportionately affect mid-range models, specifically:
- GeForce RTX 5070 Ti
- GeForce RTX 5060 Ti Both are 16GB VRAM cards, where memory constitutes a large portion of the total cost.
A Broader Industry Trend
NVIDIA is not alone in facing these challenges. Reports indicate that AMD is also expected to respond to higher memory costs, potentially by implementing modest price hikes on its own GPU lineup starting in early 2026. The memory shortage is causing a fundamental recalibration across the tech industry, with companies like Micron exiting the consumer DRAM business after decades. For consumers, the advice from analysts is clear: the current holiday season in late 2025 may represent the last window of relatively stable availability and pricing for high-performance graphics cards before the full force of the memory shortage hits the retail market.