The global smartphone market has been searching for its next major growth engine for years. With consumer upgrade cycles lengthening and innovation in traditional slab-style phones plateauing, manufacturers are betting big on a new form factor to reignite demand. According to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC), the pivotal moment for foldable smartphones is on the horizon, set to be catalyzed by the long-anticipated entry of a key player. The report predicts a dramatic reshaping of the competitive landscape in 2026, with Apple's debut foldable iPhone poised to capture a disproportionate share of the market's revenue despite its late start.
IDC Predicts a Surge in Foldable Shipments for 2026
Market research firm IDC has released a bullish forecast for the foldable smartphone segment, anticipating a significant acceleration in growth. The agency projects that global shipments of foldable phones will reach 20.6 million units in 2025, representing a solid 10% year-over-year increase. However, the real inflection point is expected in 2026, where shipments are forecast to jump by a substantial 30%. This surge is attributed to two major hardware innovations slated for that year: the launch of Apple's first foldable iPhone and Samsung's push to bring triple-fold (or "Trifold") devices to a mainstream audience. Looking further ahead, IDC expects the foldable market to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% through 2029, dramatically outpacing the stagnant sub-1% growth projected for traditional smartphones. By the end of the decade, foldables are predicted to account for over 10% of the total smartphone market's value.
Key IDC Forecast Data (2025-2026):
- 2025 Foldable Shipments: 20.6 million units (+10% YoY)
- 2026 Foldable Shipments Forecast: ~26.8 million units (+30% YoY)
- Long-term CAGR (to 2029): 17%
- Traditional Smartphone Growth: <1%
- Foldable Market Value by 2029: >10% of total smartphone market
The Android Vanguard: Samsung and Huawei Prepare for Battle
Before Apple enters the fray, Android manufacturers are expected to continue driving innovation and consumer interest. IDC's analysis highlights Samsung's strategy, noting its plans to aggressively market the "Galaxy Z Trifold" in early 2026. This move aims to build on the anticipated success of the 2025 Galaxy Z Fold7 and establish multi-fold devices as a viable product category for a broader consumer base. Simultaneously, Huawei is forecast to experience robust growth with its foldable devices running the native HarmonyOS Next operating system. IDC predicts Huawei's foldable shipments could double in 2026, solidifying its strong position in key markets, particularly China. This period sets the stage for an intensified competition, with both companies seeking to cement user loyalty and technological leadership ahead of Apple's disruption.
2026 Competitive Landscape Forecast:
| Company | Key Product Move | Forecasted Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung | Aggressive launch of Galaxy Z Trifold in early 2026. | Aims to mainstream triple-fold technology. |
| Huawei | Growth of HarmonyOS Next foldables. | Shipments expected to double in 2026. |
| Apple | Launch of first foldable iPhone in late 2026. | Predicted to take >22% unit share and 34% revenue share in Year 1. |
Apple's Late Entry and Its Disproportionate Market Impact
The most significant shift in the industry's dynamics is projected for late 2026 with the arrival of Apple's foldable iPhone. IDC's forecast suggests that Apple will have an immediate and profound impact. Despite being a newcomer to the form factor, Apple is predicted to capture over 22% of the global foldable smartphone unit share in its first year of release. More strikingly, due to an expected average selling price (ASP) of around USD 2400, Apple is forecast to seize approximately 34% of the entire foldable market's revenue. Francisco Jeronimo, IDC's Vice President for Client Devices, believes Apple's entry will be a "turning point" for the category, significantly boosting mainstream consumer awareness and adoption. This highlights the unique power of Apple's brand and ecosystem to command premium prices and redefine market value distribution.
Financial Context:
- Apple's Expected Foldable iPhone ASP: ~USD 2400
- Foldable vs. Standard Phone ASP: Foldables are ~3x more expensive.
- Industry Role: Foldables are a primary value driver, not just a volume play.
Foldables as the New Value Engine for Smartphone Makers
The strategic importance of foldables extends beyond mere shipment volumes. IDC's report underscores that these devices are becoming a critical financial pillar for manufacturers. While foldables will remain a niche segment in terms of total units shipped for the foreseeable future, their average selling price is roughly three times that of a standard smartphone. This makes the foldable segment a crucial "value driver" for the industry. For most players involved, success in this space is less about outselling rivals in volume and more about capturing a larger slice of the high-margin, premium segment. In a market where overall growth is elusive, foldables represent one of the few clear paths to increased revenue and profitability, transforming the competitive battle into a high-stakes fight for the top tier of the market.
