The foldable smartphone market, long dominated by a few key players, is on the cusp of a seismic shift. According to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC), Apple's anticipated entry into the segment with the "iPhone Fold" in late 2026 is set to dramatically reshape the competitive landscape and ignite unprecedented growth. The report suggests that Apple's debut will not only capture a significant slice of the market for itself but will also act as a rising tide that lifts all ships, accelerating adoption and pushing the technology further into the mainstream.
Apple's iPhone Fold Predicted for a Strong Debut
Market research firm IDC has released a bold projection for the 2026 foldable smartphone market, forecasting that Apple's first foldable iPhone will capture an impressive 22% of global shipments in its first full year. This would immediately position Apple as a top-three player alongside current leaders Samsung and Huawei. The catalyst for this rapid ascent is Apple's vast and loyal installed base of premium iPhone users, many of whom have been waiting for the company to enter the foldable category before upgrading. IDC analysts believe the iPhone Fold will be the core engine driving a projected 30% year-over-year growth for the entire foldable market in 2026, a stark contrast to the stagnant growth seen in the traditional smartphone sector.
Projected 2026 Foldable Smartphone Market Share (IDC)
| Company | Projected 2026 Market Share | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung | ~60% | Technology legacy & global channels |
| Apple | ~22% | iPhone user base & premium entry |
| Huawei | ~17% | Dominance in Chinese market |
| Others | ~1% | - |
A Reshuffled Global Market Hierarchy
The entry of Apple is expected to break Samsung's current dominance and establish a new, three-tiered market structure by 2026. IDC predicts Samsung will maintain its leadership position but see its overwhelming share diluted to around 60%, down from approximately 89% in 2025. Huawei is forecast to hold steady as a major player, leveraging its stronghold in the Chinese market to secure about 17% of the global pie. Apple's projected 22% share would round out the top tier, creating a clear "big three" dynamic. This shift indicates that while Samsung's technical lead and global reach remain formidable, Apple's brand power and ecosystem are potent enough to command a major presence from day one.
Specifications and Design Rumors for the iPhone Fold
While Apple has not officially confirmed details, industry rumors and analyst reports paint a picture of a high-end, book-style foldable. The device, expected to be announced in September 2026 alongside the iPhone 18 Pro series, is said to feature a 5.5-inch external display and a larger 7.8-inch main internal screen. A key selling point is the reported use of advanced screen technology designed to minimize or eliminate the visible crease that has plagued earlier foldables—a challenge Apple's engineers have reportedly been focused on solving. Other speculated features include a titanium frame, a durable liquid metal hinge, and a potential return to Touch ID fingerprint recognition instead of Face ID for the foldable form factor.
Rumored iPhone Fold Specifications
- Design: Book-style (similar to Galaxy Z Fold)
- Displays: 5.5-inch external, 7.8-inch internal main screen
- Key Feature: Advanced technology to minimize visible screen crease
- Materials: Titanium frame, liquid metal hinge
- Biometrics: Touch ID (rumored)
- Expected Launch: Fall 2026
- Rumored Starting Price: ~USD 2,400
Financial Impact and Premium Pricing Strategy
The iPhone Fold's influence is predicted to be even more pronounced in terms of market value. IDC estimates that despite making up 22% of units shipped, Apple will capture a staggering 34% of the total foldable market's revenue in 2026. This disparity is attributed to the device's expected premium price tag, rumored to start around USD 2,400. This strategy will elevate the average selling price (ASP) of foldables across the board, making the segment a crucial profit driver for manufacturers. As IDC's Francisco Jeronimo noted, foldables will become a "relevant value driver" with ASPs roughly three times higher than those of standard smartphones.
Market Growth Forecast
- 2025 (Pre-Apple): 20.6 million units shipped, +10% YoY growth.
- 2026 (Post-Apple Launch): Projected +30% YoY growth for the overall foldable market.
- 2027: Projected +21% YoY growth.
A Catalyst for Mainstream Adoption and Future Outlook
Analysts agree that Apple's greatest impact may be in legitimizing the foldable category for a broader, more mainstream audience. The company has a storied history of entering established but niche markets—like tablets and smartwatches—and refining the experience to drive mass adoption. The iPhone Fold is expected to follow this pattern, boosting consumer confidence and pulling in buyers who have been skeptical of first-generation foldable technology from other brands. Looking beyond 2026, IDC expects Apple's share to continue growing steadily, potentially reaching 34% of shipments by 2029, as the market matures and expands globally.